Environmental impact assessment using FORM and groundwater system reliability concept: case study Jining, China |
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Authors: | Long Cang Shu Pei Gui Liu Basil T Iro Ongor |
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Institution: | (1) State Key Lab of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China;(2) Masinde Muliro University of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 190, Kakamega, 50100, Kenya |
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Abstract: | In this paper, fist-order reliability method (FORM) is used to evaluate the impacts of uncertainties posed by traditional
deterministic models on the environment in Jining, China. Because of groundwater contamination in shallow aquifer, and an
increase in water demand, the new wells target the confined aquifer with constant pumping rate of 5,000 m3/d. Using Theis equation, the groundwater drawdown is analyzed to determine whether the confined aquifer will be contaminated.
Although the piezometric level is higher than the phreatic level by 11.0 m, the risk of drawdown is still 19.49% when the
pumping rate of 5,000 m3/d is maintained for 2 years. The deterministic model indicates a drawdown of 8.94 m which is lower than the maximum tolerance
drawdown of 11.0 m. The sensitivity and uncertainty analysis reveal that the model result is more sensitive to transmissivity
than specific yield, while the reliability analysis offers significant information for the decision makers. This approach
exposes and minimizes the risk of undesirable consequences such as groundwater contamination. |
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Keywords: | Reliability analysis Groundwater drawdown FORM Risk Jining China |
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