海平面上升对中国沿海重要工程设施与城市发展的可能影响

由于自然和人为双重因素作用，２１世纪前半期中国沿海平原地区相对海平面上升幅度可能达到全球平均值的２－３倍，由此将给沿海地区自然环境演变和社会经济发展带来一系列不利影响，本文分析了未来相对海平面上升５０ｃｍ对中国沿海重要的海岸防护、水利与港口码头工程以及城市供水、防洪与滨海旅游业的可能影响方式与程度。

POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON MAJOR PROJECTS AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT IN THE COASTAL AREAS IN CHINA

The coastal plains are the regions with dense population and well-developed economy in China. where there are over thirty middle or big cities and nearly twenty important harbors.including Tianjin, Shanghai and Guangzhou etc. Due to land subsidence and other factors, relative sea level rise of these areas can be 2-3 times of the global mean value in the mid-21th century.So the coastal plains of China will be one of the regions which are the most vulnerable to future sea level rise in the world. Through the typical researches on the old Huanghe Delta near Tianjin, the Changjiang Delta and its adjacent area and the Zhujiang Delta,this paper analyses the adverse impacts of a 50 cm sea level rising on coastal defense, water conservancy and harbor projects, as well as urban water supply, flood control and tourism in the coastal areas in China.The research results show that, acceleated relative sea level rising will cause marked decline in the function of the various coastal defense and water conservancy projects and endangerseriously the functional working of more than half of sixteen major harbors. Meanwhile, it will also influence urban development through deteriorating water quality, aggravating the tasks of urban flood control and damaging tourism beaches. Tianjin, Shanghai and Guangzhou would be seriouly affected.