诊断天气气候时间序列极值特征的一种新方法

将平稳过程的交叉理论用于天气气候极值分析,提出了一种诊断天气气候时间序列极值特征量的新方法,在正态假设下,推证出天气气候记录中,极值出现频数、持续时间和等待时间的估计公式,论证了极值出现频数与其频谱结构的对应关系及其相互推算方法.实例应用表明,其理论计算值与实测值相当一致,这种方法对于气候变化诊断与预测和天气预报具有很强的实用价值.

A New Method on Time Series of Weather and Climate to Diagnose the Features of Extreme Value

Abstract A new diagnostic method tor the extreme value of time series is presented by using the cross theory of stationary stochstic process to extreme value of weather and climate sequences. The estimational formulas for occurrence frequency of extreme event, its persislcnl lime and interval lime are derived from the normality hypothesis in weather or climate series; especially, the relationship regarding the frequency of occurrence of extreme event and the composition of frequency spectrum in time series as well as several cases are presented. Results show that consistence of theory and observations is excellent. Thus, the above method can be applied to diagnosis extreme event of weather and climate, and the problems for forecasting extremes of climate need a further research in another paper.