国内外雾预报技术研究进展

大雾是引起低能见度的主要天气现象.提高雾的预报技术水平是确保交通安全的重要措施.从统计和数值预报两个方面，回顾了过去几十年来国内外在雾预报技术上的主要研究进展，并总结了各种方法的特点及存在的缺陷.在某些情形下，新统计方法的应用提高了雾的预报准确率，但仍然无法摆脱统计方法本身的缺陷.相比较而言，数值模式在大雾预报方面具有更广泛的应用和更大的潜力.在目前的计算机水平下，使用高分辨率的一维雾模式与中尺度天气模式相结合的方法，在一定程度上可以提高雾的预报准确率，该方法在大雾易发区的机场及高速公路沿线具有重要的应用价值.随着计算机能力的不断提高，包含大雾形成和演变的各种复杂过程、具有先进资料同化过程的高分辨率三维雾模式，以及集合数值预报系统将是未来的发展方向.

Progress in fog prediction

Fog is the main cause of low visibility.Therefore,improving the accuracy of fog prediction is an important measure to increase transportation security.The main progress in fog prediction in recent decades is reviewed from statistical model and numerical simulation,and the advantages and disadvantages for each method are summarized.Under some conditions,the application of new statistical methods could improve the accuracy of fog forecasting.However,the statistical methods could not get rid of the inherent deficiencies of statistics.Comparatively,numerical modeling shows more extensive applications and more potential in fog prediction.Under the current computer condition,coupling of high-resolution one-dimensional fog model with three-dimensional mesoscale weather forecasting model shows better forecasting capacity,compared with the mesoscale model alone.The coupled method is much feasible for fog prediction in airport and along expressway,which are prone to heavy fog and the observations are already available.With the ever-increasing computing power,the high-resolution three dimensional models covering wide aspect of fog processes,as well as multi-model ensemble prediction system will be the future direction in accurate fog prediction.