| 累加阶层线性模型的长三角地区年降雨量预测 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 周伟灿,朱利亚.累加阶层线性模型的长三角地区年降雨量预测[J].南京气象学院学报,2013,5(3):284-288. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 周伟灿 朱利亚 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 南京信息工程大学 数学与统计学院,南京,210044;无锡城市职业技术学院,无锡,214153;南京信息工程大学 数学与统计学院,南京,210044 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 将灰色系统模型与阶层线性模型的思想和方法结合起来,拓展了模型的适用范围,给出了累加阶层线性AMM(1,1)模型,并在结合长三角年降雨量的具体实例时进行了模型改进.对原模型与改进后的AMM(1,1)进行比较,验证了模型的实用性,为降雨量的预测提供了一种新途径.
|
| 关 键 词： | 阶层线性模型 灰色系统 累加阶层统计模型 降雨量预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2012/3/10 0:00:00 |
Annual rainfall forecasting of the Yangtze River Delta based on accumulated multilevel statistical models |
| |
| ZHOU Weican and ZHU Liya.Annual rainfall forecasting of the Yangtze River Delta based on accumulated multilevel statistical models[J].Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology,2013,5(3):284-288. |
| |
| Authors: | ZHOU Weican and ZHU Liya |
| |
| Institution: | School of Mathematics & Statistics,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044;Wuxi City College of Vocational Technology,Wuxi 214153;School of Mathematics & Statistics,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044 |
| |
| Abstract: | This paper combines the ideas and methods of the hierarchical linear model and the grey theory and gives a new statistical model called accumulated multilevel statistical model.Combined with the fact of the Yangtze River Delta,the annual rainfall forecast model is built.The comparison between predictive value and measured value indicates that the relative error is small and the proposed model is practical.Thus rainfall forecast now has a new means. |
| |
| Keywords: | multilevel statistical model grey theory accumulated multilevel statistical model annual rainfall forecasting |
|
| 点击此处可从《南京气象学院学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《南京气象学院学报》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
