中国地震灾害损失评估模型与实证分析研究

中国是世界上地震灾害多发的国家之一,对强震灾害损失进行准确的评价研究具有重要的经济和社会意义.文章着重对震灾的经济损失方面进行评估,将其分为直接经济损失和间接经济损失2个部分.首先运用K-S检验确定我国年地震损失额的分布函数,并对月地震次数进行拟合,然后运用灰色聚类法和主成分分析法对不同震灾分别进行直接和间接经济损失评级,最后对2006-2009年我国地震所造成的经济损失进行评估,对8次震灾进行综合经济损失评级.

Evaluation models and empirical analysis of earthquake disaster losses in China

China is one of the countries which have the most earthquake disasters in the world,to evaluate the losses of earthquake therefore has important social and economic value.This paper focuses on the assessment of economic losses of earthquake disasters,which is divided into two parts,namely direct economic loss and indirect economic loss.Firstly,K-S test is used to determine the distribution of the annual earthquake losses in China,and the monthly frequency of earthquake is calculated and fitted.Secondly,grey clustering method and principal component analysis(PCA) are applied for direct economic loss rating and indirect economic loss rating,respectively.Finally,the economic losses due to the earthquakes happened during 2006-2009 in China are evaluated,and eight earthquakes are rated based on the comprehensive economic loss.