山东暴雨洪涝灾害的风险区划与分析

根据暴雨洪涝灾害致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承载体易损性和防灾减灾能力4个一级因子，以山东地区为研究对象，综合考虑降雨、地形地势、河网密度、植被、人口和经济实力、道路交通信息等因子进行风险区划与分析。利用地理信息系统软件（ArcGIS）将上述因子进行归一化来获得标准化的多源栅格数据，结合层次分析法和自然断点法确定相关指标的权重，建立了暴雨洪涝灾害的风险评估模型，最后得到了山东地区暴雨洪涝灾害综合风险区划等级评估图。对研究区进行定性和定量分析后得出结论，山东地区暴雨洪涝灾害发生的高风险区在鲁中西部、鲁南及山东半岛东部沿海部分地区，此结论与历史数据基本吻合。研究结果为预防山东暴雨洪涝灾害提供了参考信息。

Risk zoning and analysis of storm and flood in Shandong Province

Shandong Province is studied for risk zoning and analysis of storm and flood, based on 4 first-level risk factors of storm and flood disaster-inducing environmental hazards, environmental sensitivity to disasters, vulnerability of carriers, and disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities, represented by factors such as rainfall, topography, river network density, vegetation, population and economic strength, and traffic information. A geographic information system software (ArcGIS) was used to normalize the above factors to obtain standardized multi-source raster data, and the analytic hierarchy process and natural breaks classification method were used to determine the weight of the relevant indicators. Thus, the study established a risk assessment model for storm and flood disasters. Finally, it came up with the evaluation map of the comprehensive risk zoning of heavy rain and flood disasters in Shandong Province. After a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the study area, it was concluded that the high-risk areas where rainstorms and floods occurred were west of central Shandong, southern Shandong, and parts of the eastern coast of Shandong Peninsula. This conclusion is basically consistent with historical data and used as reference to guard against heavy rainfall and flood disasters in Shandong.