基于MODIS数据的火险潜在指数（FPI）及其应用研究

死、活可燃物含水率大小决定森林点燃的难易度,是判断林火能否发生、进行林火预报的重要因子。本文应用火险潜在指数（FPI，Fire Potential Index）模型，从这2个方面分析研究可燃物湿度对林火发生的影响。利用MODIS遥感数据提取FPI模型所需因素（气象数据： 相对湿度、温度； 植被数据： 10 h时滞可燃物湿度、归一化水分指数、植被绿度），并将获得的2004年10月黑龙江省和2008年3月南方几省的气象、植被数据输入FPI模型，得到火险指数和火险等级划分。实践证明，应用该模型能够提高火险在时间和地理分布上的预报能力及预防技术。

THE FIRE POTENTIAL INDEX (FPI) BASED ON MODIS DATA AND ITS APPLICATION

The Fire Potential Index(FPI) model makes use of the combustible thing diagram,the burden of live and dead surface vegetation and the degree of humidity to estimate the possibility of forest fire occurrence.The authors used the MODIS data to extract all factors used in fire forecast,which included relative humidity,temperature,humidity of ten hours timelag combustible materials,normal vegetation water index,and vegetation greenness.The application of FPI model to fire forecast was tested by weather and vegetation data obtained by MODIS from Heilongjiang in October 2004 and from some provinces in southern China in March 2008.These data were input into the FPI model to obtain the fire insurance index chart.Practice shows that the utilization of the FPI model can raise the capability for the forecast of the temporal and geographic distribution of fire danger and improve the prediction technique.