云南1971—2006年暖冬的时空变化分析

暖冬的频繁发生已经对农业生产、人类健康和生态系统产生直接的影响。根据云南省1971～2006年冬季平均气温观测资料，采用概率气候事件划分方法确定单站暖冬阈值和暖冬强度等级标准，得到全省逐年暖冬指数，分析云南省“暖”冬的变化趋势和分布特征。结果表明：云南省冬季普遍增暖，1971～2006年共出现13个暖冬年，暖冬年在时间分布上很不均匀，在1997年以后呈现明显变暖趋势。

SPATIAL-TEMPORAL CHANGES OF WARMER WINTER IN YUNNAN DURING 1971～2006

The frequent occurrence of warm winters had direct impact on agricultural production, human health and ecosystems and so on. The method of the weather events probability was applied in determining warmer winter threshold and intensity of single station based on the data of the winter average temperature Yunnan Province 1971 - 2006. Then the warm index of Yunnan Province could be achieved. Warmer winter variation and trend of Yunnan province was discussed. The results showed that： winter was widely warmer in Yunnan Province, 1971 - 2006 there were 13 warm winters, the warm winter in the time distribution is very uneven, since 1997 distinct warming trend.