基于形变资料开展地震预测研究需关注的问题及展望

总结基于形变资料的与地震预测相关的物理模型发展过程，并对当前形变观测资料在地震预测研究中的应用进行介绍。在此基础上，给出基于形变资料的强震综合预测思路及需要关注的问题。未来一段时间，建议从形变监测角度解决典型构造区密集观测与通用大地测量模型的构建问题；从科研角度开展高分辨率应力/应变场获取方法及其与地震关系的研究，深入研究并获得我国地壳粘滞性结构分布，强化研究活动地块/典型构造区的变形机理，开展断层滑动速率、闭锁程度/滑动亏损分布的可靠获取方法及模型研究，强化典型部位连续观测异常模式识别及机理研究。监测和科研的核心问题是为断层变形机理提供有效的观测约束并构建定量力学模型，相关工作是深入理解地震过程和推进强震物理预测的关键所在。

Questions and Prospects for Earthquake Forecast Research Based on Deformation Data

Crustal deformation is the most direct phenomenon of the earthquake preparation, occurrence and adjustment process. This paper briefly reviews the development history of the crustal deformation observation, summarizes the development set up of its related physical model about earthquake forecast, and then introduces the current application of the deformation data in the earthquake domain. In the future, we suggest to pay more attentions to two aspects: 1) in geodesy surveying domain, we should dense observations in typical tectonic zones first, and then construct the universal geodetic model with multi-source data; 2) in research domain, we should develop the methods to obtain the stress/strain field in high-resolution, construct the relationship between the stress/strain field and the earthquake process, study and obtain the crustal viscosity structure distribution in high accuracy, strengthen to research the deformation mechanism of the active tectonic block, promote study of the reliable method and model to invert fault slip rate, locking degree, and slip deficit distribution, and strengthen recognition of the pattern and mechanism of abnormity phenomena in the continuous observation for typical areas. In general, the core issue is to provide effective observational constraints and establish quantitative mechanical models for the fault deformation mechanism, which is the key to understanding the earthquake process and promoting the physical forecast of strong earthquakes.