基于线性回归分析的主余震相关关系

预防强震后可能发生的余震对于保护灾区安全具有重要意义。为了对余震进行一定误差水平的快速判定,对主震与余震之间的关系进行分析。选取1970年1月1日—2009年9月30日全球范围5—10级地震进行预处理,采用基于最小二乘法的线性回归方法,对主震震级与最大余震震级关联关系、主震视应力与最大余震震级关联关系进行分析,并进行结果可视化。结果表明,主震与最大余震的震级存在一定线性关系,可为主震后在一定范围内对最大余震的快速判定提供一定参考。

Relationship analysis between the principal earthquake and the largest aftershock based on the linear regression

Predict the possibility of aftershocks is of vital importance to the safety of the earthquake region. In order to predict the aftershock rapidly within certain error level, the research on the relationship between the principal earthquake and the corresponding largest aftershock is carried out. The global earthquakes with magnitude between 5 and 10 during January 1, 1970 to September 30, 2009 are chosen and preprocessed. The least square-based linear regression method is applied in magnitude relationship of main shock and aftershock. Also we use the method to analyze the relationship between the principal earthquake apparent stress and earthquake magnitude. Then we visualized the results. The result shows that there is certain linear relationship between the magnitude of the principal earthquake and that of the largest aftershock. These analysis results are some helpful for the prediction of the aftershocks in certain area.