山东某场地概率地震危险性分析

利用概率地震危险性分析(CPSHA)方法,对山东某场地进行地震危险性分析,通过对该场地划分潜在震源区,确定地震活动性参数及地震动衰减关系,计算分析地震危险性概率,基本确定对该场地地震动峰值加速度起主要贡献的几个潜在震源区及贡献值,并确定该场地50年超越概率10%的水平向基岩地震动加速度峰值。结果发现,CPSHA方法以具体的构造尺度和更加细致的构造标志来划分潜在震源区,使潜在震源区规模缩减,从而更能反映地震活动在空间分布上的不均匀性。

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of a site in Shandong Province

In this paper, the seismic risk analysis of a site in Shandong was carried out by using the method of CPSHA. The field was divided into potential source areas, seismicity parameters, seismic attenuation relationship, seismic risk probability analysis. The results determined the major contribution to the peak acceleration of ground motion of several potential seismic source and theirs contribution values, and the 50 years beyond the probability 10% level to the peak acceleration of ground motion. It turned out that, the CPSHA method divided the potential source regions with specific tectonic scales and more detailed structural markers, so it greatly reduced the size of potential focal regions and reflected the in homogeneity of the spatial distribution of seismic activity.