安徽省夏玉米气候适宜性及时空格局特征

利用安徽省60个气象站1961-2010年的气象资料,结合已有研究成果,利用加权平均法构建了夏玉米气候适宜指数模型,并分析了气温、降水、日照及其适宜指数的变化趋势,重点分析表征各要素综合影响的气候适宜指数的时空变化特征。结果表明:夏玉米生长季内的温度适宜指数呈现微弱上升趋势,日照适宜指数显著下降,降水适宜指数呈现不显著的下降趋势。不同发育阶段,气温、降水及其适宜指数上升或下降的趋势不尽一致,日照及其适宜指数下降趋势显著,自然状况下降水是制约夏玉米生长的主要限制因素。夏玉米全生育期的气候适宜指数下降趋势显著。近50年来安徽省夏玉米气候适宜指数空间分布特征发生明显变化,北部尤其是西北部夏玉米气候适宜性下降明显。

Spatial-temporal distribution of climatic suitability of summer maize in Anhui province

Summer maize is one of the major crops in Anhui province, and the annual planting area is more than 0.67 million hectares. The growth and development of summer maize are affected by comprehensive meteorological factors, such as temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours. According to 60 meteorological stations with climatic records from 1961 to 2010 in Anhui province, and on the basis of the physiological characteristics of summer maize and existing research results, we constructed the suitability models of summer maize about temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours. The suitability index of temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours were calculated which can characterize different meteorological element suitability. Based on the relationship between single factor suitability index and summer maize yield, climatic suitability index model was set up by the weighted-average method. The climatic suitability index can express synergetic effect of meteorological factors and yields. The change trends of temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours and their suitability were analyzed. The change trends of climatic suitability index were emphatically analyzed. The results showed that there were significant correlation between suitability indexes and summer maize yield, and suitability indexes can objectively reflect the suitability of meteorological factors. The average temperature in the whole growth period of summer maize showed an increasing trend but not significantly, and the precipitation showed a similar trend. But in different growth stages, the average temperature and precipitation had different trends. The sunshine hours showed an obvious downward trend in different growth stages. In the whole growth period of summer maize, the temperature suitability index showed an advance trend, and the precipitation suitability index showed a downward trend, but these change trends were not significant. The sunshine suitability index showed an obvious downward trend in different growth stages. The precipitation suitability index was lower than temperature suitability index and sunshine suitability index, and the precipitation was a limiting factor. The climatic suitability index showed an obvious downward trend in the whole growth period of summer maize, and it decreased by 0.025 every ten years. In different growth stages, the climatic suitability index showed an obvious downward trend too. The descending rate of climatic suitability index at the seedling stage was the highest. The spatial distribution of climatic suitability index during summer maize growing season had been changed, and the climatic suitability index of northwest Anhui was much lower compared with the 1960s.