Quantitative analysis of the impact factors of conventional energy carbon emissions in Kazakhstan based on LMDI decomposition and STIRPAT model

Quantitative analysis of the impact factors in energy-related CO₂ emissions serves as an important guide for reducing carbon emissions and building an environmentally-friendly society. This paper aims to use LMDI method and a modified STIRPAT model to research the conventional energy-related CO₂ emissions in Kazakhstan after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The results show that the trajectory of CO₂ emissions displayed U-shaped curve from 1992 to 2013. Based on the extended Kaya identity and additive LMDI method, we decomposed total CO₂ emissions into four influencing factors. Of those, the economic active effect is the most influential factor driving CO₂ emissions, which produced 110.86 Mt CO₂ emissions, with a contribution rate of 43.92%. The second driving factor is the population effect, which led to 11.87 Mt CO₂ emissions with a contribution rate of 4.7%. On the contrary, the energy intensity effect is the most inhibiting factor, which caused–110.90 Mt CO₂ emissions with a contribution rate of–43.94%, followed by the energy carbon structure effect resulting in–18.76 Mt CO₂ emissions with a contribution rate of–7.43%. In order to provide an in-depth examination of the change response between energy-related CO₂ emissions and each impact factor, we construct a modified STIRPAT model based on ridge regression estimation. The results indicate that for every 1% increase in population size, economic activity, energy intensity and energy carbon structure, there is a subsequent increase in CO₂ emissions of 3.13%, 0.41%, 0.30% and 0.63%, respectively.