多元优化城市建设用地需求量预测模型

本文根据建设用地需求量与社会经济发展指标之间存在的内在关系,提出了基于多元优化组合的建设用地需求量预测模型。文中选择总人口、GDP、全社会固定资产投资、财政支出总额四项指标作为自变量、以年建设用地量作为因变量,基于单变量拟合方程对建设用地增量的精度贡献,构建多元非线性组合模型,并用土地利用效率变化修正系数修正模型结果,预测新增建设用地量。对未来建设用地需求量做出合理的预测,有利于政府部门关于土地的使用与规划,避免了有限土地资源的浪费1]。

Multi-parameter optimum combination model of predicting land demand for construction use of city

According to the intrinsic relationship between demand land for construction and socio-economic development indicators,a multi-parameter nonlinear model to forecast the demand for construction was presented.In the multi-parameter nonlinear model,population,GDP,financial expenditure and total investment in fixed assets,were selected as the independent variable,while construction land area was selected as the dependent variable.An improved optimum combination forecasting method was used to produce a multi-parameter nonlinear model.This method calculates the value of each coefficient based on the precision contribution of the single variable simulation model to the predict increments of construction land area.And then a correct coefficient is used to correct forecast results.As a result,construction land demand is satisfactorily obtained.The forecast of construction land in future could help the relative departments of government to plan lands utilization to avoid the waste of land resource.