| 国家气象中心业务数值预报发展的回顾与展望 |
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| 引用本文： | 闫之辉,王雨,朱国富. 国家气象中心业务数值预报发展的回顾与展望[J]. 气象, 2010, 36(7): 26-32 |
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| 作者姓名： | 闫之辉 王雨 朱国富 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家气象中心,北京,100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局新技术推广项目“GRAPES全球模式物理过程的升级及优化改进（GS2009）”资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文回顾了国家气象中心建立数值预报业务以来,国家级业务数值预报系统,主要是中、短期预报系统的发展历程,评估了目前业务数值预报的预报水平和基本特点,简述了我国业务数值预报发展的不同阶段取得的主要进展。通过对目前我国业务数值预报发展中存在的问题和不足的分析,讨论下一步的工作重点,并对未来的发展做初步展望。
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| 关 键 词： | 业务数值预报 中短期预报模式 资料分析同化系统 预报检验评估 |
| 收稿时间： | 2009-11-23 |
| 修稿时间： | 2010-01-04 |
The Review and Outlook on the Development of Operational NWP in NMC |
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| YAN Zhihui,WANG Yu and ZHU Guofu. The Review and Outlook on the Development of Operational NWP in NMC[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2010, 36(7): 26-32 |
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| Authors: | YAN Zhihui WANG Yu ZHU Guofu |
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| Affiliation: | National Meteorologrcal Center, Beijing 100081;National Meteorologrcal Center, Beijing 100081;National Meteorologrcal Center, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | The developing course of national operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems since established in the National Meteorological Center is reviewed, mainly focusing on short range and medium range systems. The forecast level and essential features of the current systems are assessed. The major progress achieved in each stage of NWP development is outlined. Through analysis of the problems and shortage of current stage of NWP development, the near future key points of Chinese NWP development are discussed and the prospects are outlooked. |
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| Keywords: | operational NWP prediction model on short range and medium range data assimilation system forecast verification and assessment |
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