| 异地海域年极值风暴增水同现规律的探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 董胜,梁永超,郝小丽.异地海域年极值风暴增水同现规律的探讨[J].中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版),2004,34(3):468-474. |
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| 作者姓名： | 董胜 梁永超 郝小丽 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国海洋大学工程学院,山东,青岛,266071
2. 中国海洋大学工程学院,山东,青岛,266071;中国石化海上石油工程技术检验站,山东,东营,257001 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部留学回国人员科研启动基金项目资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 以塘沽和龙口海洋观测站20年极值增水值为样本，基于二维冈贝尔逻辑分布模式，探讨了不同海域风暴潮增水极值的联合分布规律。通过对二维分布的联合概率密度、条件概率密度和同现概率的计算，给出了相应的工程设计参数，供有关部门在防潮规划时参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 风暴极值增水 二维冈贝尔逻辑分布 联合概率 防潮规划 风暴潮 |
| 文章编号： | 1672-1574(2004)03-468-07 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年9月24日 |
Coincidence Probability Study of Annual Extreme Storm Surges in Different Coastal Areas |
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| DONG Sheng ,LIANG Yong-chao ,HAO Xiao-li.Coincidence Probability Study of Annual Extreme Storm Surges in Different Coastal Areas[J].Periodical of Ocean University of China,2004,34(3):468-474. |
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| Authors: | DONG Sheng LIANG Yong-chao HAO Xiao-li |
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| Institution: | DONG Sheng 1,LIANG Yong-chao 1,2,HAO Xiao-li 1 |
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| Abstract: | By taking the annual maximum storm surges at Tanggu and Longkou Tidal Stations in 20 years as an example, this paper discusses the joint probability of extreme storm surges on the basis of the bi-variable Gumbel Logistic model. Corresponding engineering design parameters are given out by calculating the joint probability density function, conditional density function and probability function. Return period values of storm surges are proposed for reference in formulating storm-prevention program. |
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| Keywords: | extreme storm surge bi-variable Gumbel Logistic distribution coincidence probability storm prevention planning |
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