?????????????????о?

???? GPS??????? ,???? DDA????????λ???????????? ,??????????????????α????????? (???? )????????總???????????????????????????? ,?????????????????????????????????????????????? ,?????????????????????????н??????????? ,??????????????ж?????????????????? ;??伯???????????????????????????????????????? ,???????????????????Щ???? ,???????????в????????????????????????н??????????? ;?????????????????ж?Σ???? ,?????????????仯??????????????????Σ????

RESEARCHES ON CURRENT CRUST MOVEMENTS AND EARTHQUAKE PRECURSORS

On the basis of GPS observational data, dislocation on boundaries and strain inside blocks of a multi block system are computed with Discontinuous Deformation Analysis (DDA) and Dislocation Model (DM). It can be attested primarily that these patterns of motion and deformation of the block system, compared with historical seismicity, are believable. It can also be found that areas of strong seismicity are obviously corresponding to strong strain regions and intensively active boundaries, this correspondence is very useful to estimate general situation and background of strong earthquakes at long and middle term duration. The expression in more detail is that the strain concentrated region and neighborhood, and the notable change belt or area in velocity field, are likely a high risk region of strong earthquakes in the future.