海气相互作用与湖北大涝的关系分析

利用1951~1994年北太平洋海温、副热带高压环流特征量、湖北大涝资料,通过对北太平洋海温场和副热带高压(以下简称副高)的特征指数与湖北大涝的相关普查,发现几个关键区域的海温异常分布与湖北大涝有密切关系;特别春季和初夏的副高异常分布是影响湖北大涝的主要因素;海温和副高两者之间的异常变化密切关联;海温异常变化早于副高异常变化约1~3个月。利用统计预报方法分别建立了利用海温因子、副高环流特征量因子预报湖北大涝的模型,并在汛期进行了试验。验证表明:湖北大涝与海气相互作用密切相关,北太平洋海温异常引起副高异常,副高异常导致湖北大涝的出现。

Relationship between Waterlogging over Hubei Province and Air-Sea Interaction

Using the data of North Pacific SST,subtropical high characteristic indices and deluges in Hubei Province from 1951 to 1994,a detailed investigation is made on the relationship between deluges in Hubei Province and North Pacific SST,and subtropical high characteristic indices.The results show that there is close relationship between the abnormality of SST in several key regions and deluges.Especially the abnormal distribution of subtropical high in spring and early summer is the main factor influencing deluges in Hubei Province.Besides,the abnormal changes of SST and subtropical high are closely connected: the former is about 1 to 3 months earlier than the latter.Using the statistic analysis method,the models are established by using sea temperature and subtropical high characteristic factors respectively to predict heavy waterlogging over Hubei.The models were put to trial use in Hubei flood season.The result indicates that the heavy waterlogging in Hubei has close relation with air-sea interaction.The abnormality of the sea temperature over the North Pacific Ocean resulted in the abnormality of subtropical high,which caused heavy waterlogging over Hubei.