“一带一路”沿线国家农田生态系统脆弱性及其对气候变化的响应

全球气候变化背景下,“一带一路”沿线国家农田生态系统脆弱性直接影响着所在国家或地区的粮食安全问题。本文基于农田生态系统总初级生产力(GPP),使用定量的脆弱性评价方法,系统分析了“一带一路”沿线国家农田生态系统脆弱性的空间分布特征及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明:①“一带一路”沿线国家农田生态系统脆弱性普遍处于较高的程度,77.1%的农田生态系统表现为中度和重度脆弱,且农田生态系统脆弱性呈现出明显的空间分异格局,中亚、西亚和蒙古脆弱性较高,中国、东南亚和南亚的脆弱性处于中等水平,俄罗斯、独联体和中东欧脆弱性较低;②1980年以来“一带一路”沿线农田生态系统暖干化趋势明显,暖干化区域面积占64.06%,暖干化是“一带一路”沿线国家农田生态系统气候变化的主要特征;③农田生态系统脆弱性由低到高的气候变化区依次为暖湿区、冷湿区、暖干区、冷干区。暖湿区农田生态系统脆弱性最低,而冷干区农田生态系统脆弱性最高。气温和降水的变化及其耦合关系控制着农田生态系统脆弱性程度,其中降水变化趋势是影响农田生态系统脆弱性的重要因子。本研究为“一带一路”沿线国家应对和解决粮食安全问题,促进农业可持续发展,为加强各国之间的农业国际合作提供科学依据和有益参考。

Vulnerability of Farmland Ecosystems in Countries Along the "Belt and Road" and Responses to Climate Change

In the context of global climate change, vulnerability of farmland ecosystems in countries along the "Belt and Road" can directly affect regional food security. In this paper, we quantitatively analyzed the spatial distribution characteristics of farmland ecosystem vulnerability in countries along the "Belt and Road", as well as the responses to climate change. Results show: (1) Farmland ecosystems in countries along the “Belt and Road” generally had higher vulnerability, wherein 77.1% farmland ecosystems were found moderately and severely vulnerable. There was significant spatial variation of the farmland ecosystem vulnerability—higher in Central Asia, West Asia, and Mongolia; moderate in China, Southeast Asia, and South Asia; and lower in Russia, the Commonwealth of the Independent States, and Central and Eastern Europe. (2) Since 1980, farmland ecosystems along the "Belt and Road" have become notably warmer and drier, with the warming and drying area accounts for 64.06% and distributed mainly in central and southern China, the Commonwealth of the Independent States, southwestern Russia, Central Asia, Western Asia, western and southern India, Myanmar, Cambodia, and Indonesia. Warming and drying was the main feature of climate change in the farmland ecosystems of countries along the "Belt and Road". (3) Areas of climate change arranged per farmland ecosystem vulnerability from the lowest to the highest were: warm-wet areas, cold-wet areas, warm-dry areas, and cold-dry areas. The farmland ecosystem in the warm-wet areas was the least vulnerable and that in the cold-dry areas the most; the area of highly vulnerable farmland ecosystem in the warm-wet areas accounted for 43.09%, and that of highly vulnerable farmland ecosystem in the cold-dry areas accounted for 56.01%. Temperature and precipitation variations and their coupling relation controlled the vulnerability of farmland ecosystems, of which the trend of precipitation variation was an important factor influencing farmland ecological coordination and vulnerability. Our findings could serve as a useful reference to address the issue of food security in countries along the "Belt and Road", and to promote the sustainable agricultural development and enhance international cooperation with countries along the “Belt and Road” in agriculture.