基于潜在受害者动态时空分布的街面接触型犯罪研究

街面接触型犯罪是指犯罪者在街面通过采取与受害者身体接触的方式而实施的违反法律的行为,已有文献研究利用了不同类型的大数据代表的周遭人口表征街面接触型犯罪中“潜在受害者”因素,但由于数据的局限性,无法应用在微观的空间尺度上的街面接触型犯罪研究。微信热力图是具有高时空分辨率和高人口覆盖度,能动态地反映人流量热度的程序。因此,本文以经济发达的ZG市的XT街道为例,结合日常活动理论,并基于微信热力图数据代表的周遭人口表征的“潜在受害者”因素,首先定性地描述和识别街面接触型犯罪的时空分布特征,然后划分不同时段分析街道街面接触型犯罪的影响因素。研究发现:①街面接触型犯罪案件存在时空的集聚性,街道街面接触型犯罪在晚上(18:00-23:59)是高发期,在白天(07:00-17:59)是低发期,在22:00-22:59数量达到最大值,主要聚集在城中村区域,且不同时期的影响因素存在一定的差异;②微信人口数量在所有时期均对街面接触型犯罪存在显著的正向影响,其代表的周遭人口能很好地表征日常活动理论中的“潜在受害者”因素,且在凌晨—清晨(00:00-06:59)对街面接触型犯罪的影响最大;③不同场所对街面接触型犯罪的影响存在时间上的差异,餐饮点在晚上对街面接触型犯罪存在显著的正向影响,KTV、健身房和公交站点分别对应在凌晨—清晨、白天与晚上对街面接触型犯罪有显著的正向影响,而休闲会所在凌晨、清晨、晚上均有显著的影响,与最近巡逻驻点的距离仅在晚上时期显著影响街面接触型犯罪。本文的研究结论可为警方采用微信热力图来分析街面接触型犯罪和经济发达地区警方部署提供参考依据。

Explaining Street Contact Crime based on Dynamic Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Potential Targets

Street contact crime refers to violations of the law committed by offenders through directly contact with victims in the street such as pickpocketing, robbery and snatch, etc, which is one of the common crimes in China. It is assumed that street contact crime is the result of interaction among motivated offenders, potential targets and absence of capable guardians. Different types of big data are employed in previous studies as ambient population to represent the potential targets which is one of the essential elements in the routine activity theory. However, these types of big data can not be applied in a micro-scale study of street contact crime because of their limitations. This study aims to fill this gap by using a new type of big data, WeChat heat map, an internet application which shows demographic distribution and changes dynamically with high spatial-temporal resolution to study the street contact crime in XT, ZG city, based on dynamic spatio-temporal distribution of potential Targets. The spatio-temporal pattern of street contact crime in XT, ZG city and their influencing factors were revealed. Street contact crime data, Points of Interest (POI) and data of house prices in XT, ZG city were used in this study as well. The whole day is divided into three intervals (wee hours: 00:00-06:59, daytime:07:00-17:59, night:18:00-23:59) and negative binomial regression models are built for the three intervals accordingly. It is demonstrated that the spatio-temporal distribution of street contact crime in XT, ZG city aggregates obviously. Street contact crime in XT, ZG city mainly concentrate in urban village and night is the peak period while daytime is the low period. The count of street contact crime in XT, ZG city reach its maximum between 22:00 and 22:59. Factors have different impacts on street contact crime from interval to interval. During the wee hours, WeChat population,KTV and leisure Club have significant positive impact on street contact crime. In the daytime, WeChat population and gym have significant positive impact on street contact crime. At night, WeChat population, restaurants, Leisure Club, bus station and distance to the nearest security department have significant positive impact on street contact crime. Others factors such as internet café, shopping mall, house prices and length of road have no significant impact on street contact crime in the whole day. WeChat population as an ambient population represent the potential targets well in routine activity theory as it has significant positive impact on street contact crime in the whole day.