城市韧性研究进展与展望

在全球环境变化和快速城市化的背景下,各种不确定风险成为制约城市安全和可持续发展的重要障碍。城市韧性作为一种城市风险治理的新思路,如何提高城市抵御、消解、适应不确定风险的能力,建设有韧性能力的城市,正成为当前地理学及其相关学科领域亟待探索的新课题。论文在概述城市韧性的研究缘起与概念内涵的基础上,从多种要素(人文要素、环境要素、灾害扰动)对城市韧性的影响、城市韧性框架、城市韧性评价及模拟研究等方面出发,对可持续发展视角的城市韧性研究现状进行探讨,并指出当前城市韧性研究在理论框架、作用机理、实证研究、差异性分析等方面仍存在诸多薄弱环节。最后,对城市韧性重点研究方向进行展望,即应以理论框架为引领,推动多目标、多层次、多视角的系统评价研究;以机理解析为支撑,实现城市韧性的动态模拟与决策预警的新突破;以实证研究为导向,继续加强多学科融合和探索城市韧性的应用模式;遵循差异性规律,实现城市规划治理从统一的“多城一策”向灵活的“一城一策”转变。

Progress and prospect of urban resilience research

Under the background of global environmental change and urbanization, various risks and uncertainties have posed an important obstacle on urban security and urban sustainable development. As a potential new approach of urban risk management, urban resilience can improve the ability to resist, dissolve, and adapt when facing risks and uncertainties, and expound the adaptive scheme of risks in the process of rapid urbanization. Urban resilience has been a new topic in geography and related disciplines. Based on the origin and concept of urban resilience research, from the perspective of the impact of various factors (human, environmental, disaster) on urban resilience, this study constructed a theoretical framework of urban resilience, including evaluation and scenario simulation, and discussed the status of urban resilience research, pointing out that there are still many weak links in the theoretical framework, mechanism, practical application, and difference analysis of urban resilience research. Finally, the key directions of urban resilience research were also discussed. The theoretical framework should be used as a guide to promote multi-objective, multi-level, and multi-perspective systematic evaluation research. With the analysis of mechanism as support, studies should aim to achieve a new breakthrough in process simulation of urban resilience and decision making and early warning. Oriented by empirical research, studies should continue to strengthen the application model of multidisciplinary integration and exploration of urban resilience. Considering regional differences, further work should try to achieve a change in urban planning from the unified "one policy for multi-city" approach to the flexible "one policy for one city" approach.