城镇化中后期中国人口迁移流动形式的转变及政策应对

人口迁移流动形式是构成人口迁移流动特征的一个关键要素。在中国进入人口城镇化中后期后,准确判断和把握人口迁移流动形式的转变是一项十分重要的工作。论文基于人口迁移流动形式转变的相关理论与国际经验,考察现阶段中国人口迁移流动形式转变的进程和特点及由此产生的问题与挑战。研究发现,中国人口迁移流动形式已发生转变,并突出表现为人口回流现象不断增多、省际和省内人口迁移流动此消彼长的趋势日益明显;城—城流动显著增加,人口的城-城间流动将渐成常态化;流动人口户籍城镇化进程开始加快,其城乡两栖生计的重心向城镇转移;住房驱动下的流动人口就地、异地城镇化渐成趋势等。同时,人口迁移流动形式转变过程中面临着人口回流推动的就近就地城镇化发展可持续性不足;城—城流动向东部少数省市聚集的态势明显;以户籍城镇化主导的农业流动人口市民化面临多重障碍等问题与挑战。最后,从流动人口城镇化的空间载体构建、城市治理方式转变、中西部小城镇自我可持续发展能力提升等方面提出相应的建议。

Changes in the form of population migration and mobility in China and corresponding policy responses at the late-intermediate stage of urbanization

The form of population migration and mobility constitutes a key element of the characteristics of migration. Since China has entered the late-intermediate stage of urbanization, it is very important to accurately identify and understand the transformation in the form of population migration and mobility. While a growing body of literature has been generated and significant progress has been made on China's population migration and mobility and its determinants, an important inadequacy of relevant research are often focused on rural to urban population migration and mobility, neglecting the multi-dimensional forms of population migration and mobility. Based on relevant theories and international experience relating to the transformation in the forms of population migration and mobility, and using data from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS), Report on Monitoring and Investigation of Migrant Workers in China, and relevant statistics, this study examined the processes of the transformation in the forms of the population migration and mobility in China and their characteristics at the present stage and the issues and challenges arising therefrom. The results show that there have been significant changes in the forms of population migration and mobility in China, and such changes mainly manifest in the following aspects: First, there has been a steady increase in return migration and short-distance migration; Second, inter-urban migration has also significantly increased and become increasingly common; Third, the urbanization process of the floating population based on the rural-urban transfer of their hukou has started to accelerate, and their rural-urban multiple livelihoods has increasingly shifted towards the urban end; Fourth, there has been a developing trend of urbanization driven by housing purchases in both migrants' places of origin and destination. The study also identified issues and challenges in the process of transformation in the forms of population migration and mobility, including: First, there is a lack of sustainability in in situ urbanization promoted by return migration; Second, urban-urban migration are highly concentrated in a few provinces of the eastern region; Third, there are still many obstacles for the urbanization of rural migrants based on their hukou transfer. Finally, the article puts forward some policy recommendations from the perspectives of the construction of multi-level spatial system of urbanization of the floating population, the transformation of urban governance mode, and the promotion of the capacity for sustainable development of small towns in central and western regions.