气候变化对宁波四明山人体舒适度的影响

利用宁波四明山区域气象观测站逐日和逐小时气象要素观测资料,分析该区域气候条件,并以舒适度指标等评估其气候生态。结果表明,1961—2017年四明山区域气温持续上升,降水增多,日降水峰值集中在16—18时且未出现明显变化,小风日数增多,气候适宜日数明显增加。气温是影响该区域人体舒适度的主因,其次是相对湿度和风;春秋舒适日数多,气候温润,日晴夜雨特征明显;夏季凉爽,是理想的避暑休闲胜地;年舒适时数高山与平原相近,但季节差异明显,夏季高山地区非常舒适,其他三季平原更舒适。区域气候模式结果显示,未来四明山区域气温继续维持升高趋势,降水有所增加,极端高温事件增多,极端低温事件减少,人体舒适日数呈减少趋势,春、秋季略增加,夏季减少明显。

The impact of climate change on human comfort in the Siming Mountains in Ningbo,China

Based on daily and hourly monitoring data of meteorological elements in the region of the Siming Mountains in Ningbo city, its climatic conditions were analyzed, and its ecoclimatic advantages were evaluated using comfort index of human body. The results indicate that from 1961 to 2017, the temperature in the region has continued to rise, the precipitation has increased, the daily peak of which has been concentrating at 16-18 o’clock without any significant change, the number of small wind days has grown, and the number of climatically comfortable days has increased considerably. Besides, the results also show that temperature is the main contributor to human comfort in the Siming Mountains, followed by relative humidity and wind velocity. In spring and autumn, there is a large number of comfortable days, with warm climate and the characteristic of sunny day and rainy night; in cool summer, it is an ideal summer resort. The annual comfort hour in the high altitude area is similar to that in the plain area, but the seasonal differences are obvious. The high altitude area is more comfortable in the summer, while the plain area is better in the rest of the year. In addition, according to the results of regional climate models, the temperature in the Siming Mountains tends to continue to increase, as well as the precipitation and the number of extreme high temperature events, while the number of extreme low temperature events is prone to decrease, combined with declined climatically comfortable days and significantly less of that in the summer but more of that in spring and autumn.