长三角一体化区域城市房价空间分异的模式与效应

城市住房制度市场化改革以来,中国城市房价整体快速上涨,区域房价分异加剧。区域内部房价空间分异是城市发展差距的综合反映,即城市资源要素综合配置能力差异的物化表达。基于中国房价行情平台提供的2008—2018年地级城市和区县尺度城市房价数据,分析长三角一体化区域房价增长与分异过程,发现区域整体房价呈现快速上涨、相对平稳和再度快速上涨3个阶段,区域房价差异随房价上涨而扩大,上海、杭州和南京等城市房价增长更快,浙江、苏南地区与安徽、苏北地区的房价差距拉大。根据房价增长、城市等级与区位特征,将长三角327个区县划分为核心城市城区、中心城市城区、发达城市城区、其他城市城区、核心圈层县市和外围地区县市6种类型,提出一体化区域城市房价表现为整体上涨相对更快、不同类型区县间差异拉大、同类区县间存在“俱乐部收敛”等增长与分异模式。区域城市房价快速上涨与过度分异,驱使高端产业、人口等资源要素向少数“超级明星城市”集聚,加剧区域不平衡,不利于长三角地区实现更高质量一体化发展。

Spatial differentiation of urban housing prices in integrated region of Yangtze River Delta

Since the market-oriented reform of the housing system, China's urban housing prices have risen rapidly, and regional differentiation intensifies. Although the Chinese government has repeatedly emphasized that "housing is for living, not for speculation" the trend of rising prices in cities has not been suppressed, and the spatial differentiation of regional urban housing prices has become highlighted. Spatial differentiation of housing prices is a comprehensive reflection of the urban development gap, or a materialized expression of the differences in urban resource allocation abilities. Taking the integrated region of the Yangtze River Delta as an example, and based on the average urban housing price data of prefecture-level cities, districts, and counties between 2008 and 2018 provided by China Housing Prices, we found that the housing prices experienced three stages, namely, "fast growth", "relatively stable", and "faster growth". When the prices grew, the gap of prices between cities, especially between districts and counties, also grew, that is, integrated development did not bring about the convergence of regional housing prices. The housing prices in core and central cities, like Shanghai, Nanjing, and Hangzhou, grew more quickly, and the gaps between Zhejiang/Southern Jiangsu and Anhui/Northern Jiangsu became more obvious. Similarly, there was a huge gap in the housing prices of different districts and counties in a city. Out of consideration for reducing data error and raising analytical accuracy, and based on clarifying the pattern of spatial differentiation of urban housing prices, this paper mainly takes district and county as analysis units, and discusses the growth of housing prices in different types of districts and counties. According to the characteristics of housing price growth, city level, and location, this paper divides the 327 districts and counties of the Yangtze River Delta into six types: urban areas of core cities, urban areas of central cities, urban areas of developed cities, urban areas of other cities, counties and cities in the core circle, and counties and cities in the peripheral regions. It also discovers that, in the process of regional integration, resources flow more quickly, and high-end elements gather towards a small number of superstar cities. This means that the integrated region presents a faster price growth, a larger gap between core-edge housing prices, and the stronger convergence of similar city clubs. On this basis, we identify the mutual feedback effect of the urban economic and social differences in the integrated region, the flow of resource elements like industry and population, and the spatial differentiation of urban housing prices. The increased difference in regional housing prices will result in the forced upgrade of industries in cities with high housing prices, the loss of low-end manufacturing posts, and the concentration of social wealth to "superstar cities". Finally, in combination with the requirement for high-quality integrated development of the Yangtze River Delta, and the judgment on the rationality of regional urban housing price differentiation, this paper proposes pertinent suggestions to the adjustment and control of urban housing prices.