粤港澳大湾区经济韧性的特征与空间差异研究

当前区域经济韧性的测度研究的测度维度较为单一地聚焦在GDP之上,缺乏揭示韧性在其它经济指标上的表现;同时过于注重区域内因素,忽略了外向联系的影响。因此,本研究以粤港澳大湾区为例,选择5个经济指标对大湾区的经济韧性进行多维度测算,并借助关系经济地理学理论视角,对区域内部差异的形成原因给予解释。主要得到三个结论：第一,区域的经济韧性难以从单一维度来判定,多维度指标所揭示的经济韧性存在显著差异,其中GDP所表现出来的区域经济韧性较为保守,而就业指标所表现出来的经济韧性变动较大。第二,大湾区内部各城市的经济韧性存在显著差异,这些差异与区位和GDP规模无显著关系,而与其产业经济结构和嵌入全球生产网络方式有显著关系。第三,湾区城市在经济韧性表现的差异可以用战略耦合来进行初步解释,深圳因自主耦合而经济韧性表现最佳,佛山和广州次之,香港和澳门因以依附耦合的方式嵌入全球金融和酒店网络,因而经济韧性相对较差。本文为经济韧性研究提供了大湾区案例和新的分析视角,推动了关系经济地理学在经济韧性研究中的应用。本文建议未来要重视基于定性方法的经济韧性研究。

Economic resilience and spatial divergence in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area in China

The contemporary research of measuring regional economic resilience tends to focus on GDP index, while lacks of considering the other dimensions. Meanwhile, it overlooks the impacts from extra-regional linkage. Therefore, this study takes the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) as an example to measure the economic resilience based on five selected economic indicators, namely, GDP, gross export value, industrial added value, total retail sales of consumer goods, and number of the unemployed. Drawing upon the Resis index proposed by Martin and Gardiner in 2019, this paper calculated the relative resilience of cities in GBA. The result showed that Shenzhen has the best resilience, Guangzhou and Foshan ranked second, followed by Dongguan and Zhuhai. In contrast, Hong Kong and Macao have the worst resilience. This paper then explains the causes of regional divergence through the perspective of relational economic geography. It is argued that strategic coupling plays an important role in shaping the intra-regional divergence of resilience in the GBA. The main conclusions are as follows: First, single dimension shows limitations in depicting regional economic resilience, while multi-dimensional indicators reveals a distinctive divergence among different types of regional economic resilience. Second, intra-regional divergence of economic resilience in the GBA has been developed, which is not relevant to location and the GDP scale, but is more related to industrial economic structure and modes of embeddedness in global production networks. Third, strategic coupling can explain the intra-regional divergence. Shenzhen has been benefited from absorptive coupling with the best resilience, while Guangzhou and Foshan cities are in the medium, and Hong Kong and Macao have the worst resilience due to captive coupling with global financial and hotel networks. This paper contributes the literature with a fresh empirical case of regional resilience in the GBA and also provides an alternative theoretical framework that involves extra-regional linkages into analysis. This paper calls for more attentions of qualitative research on regional economic resilience in future, in terms of the variety of resilience from economic to social dimensions and causal mechanism of how resilience is fostered and exerts power in resistance of the shock, particularly in relation to extra-regional linkage in the contemporary global economy.