基于滞后变量模型的城市群建设用地增长对经济增长的滞后期和效应分析——以京津冀城市群为例

城市群建设用地增长对经济增长存在客观的时间滞后效应,即“用地投入—建设开发—效益产生—效益爬坡—效益稳定”的全周期过程。计算其滞后期长短和总效应大小,并挖掘导致差异的内在机制,对区域建设用地的供给与管理及经济社会的可持续发展具有重要意义。论文以1995—2017年京津冀城市群13个主要城市的统计数据为支撑,提出了建设用地增长对经济增长的滞后变量模型,定量确定了京津冀城市群各城市的滞后期长短、各滞后期的效应以及总效应,并发现了以下规律：① 城市群建设用地增长对经济增长存在普遍的滞后效应,滞后期在0~4 a;② 城市群建设用地增长对经济增长存在显著的正面效应,总效应介于1.66~49.5亿元/km2;③ 城市群建设用地增长对经济增长的滞后期和总效应均呈现出“中心—边缘”的空间分异特征;④ 滞后期主要与城市的等级和功能定位有关,高等级的中心型城市、中等级的副中心型城市和低等级的节点型城市对应的滞后期分别为4 a、2 a和0~2 a;⑤ 总效应主要与产业构成有关,城市产业高、中、低端对应的效应分别为30亿~50亿、10亿~20亿、1亿~10亿元/km2。

Effect and lag period of urban agglomeration construction land growth on economic growth based on lagged variable model:A case study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration

Urban agglomeration is an important engine for the development of economic and social systems in a country or region, and its development cannot be separated from the use of construction land. However, there is a time-lag effect of urban agglomeration construction land growth on economic growth due to the process of land investment, construction land development, benefit generation, benefit enhancement, and benefit stabilization. Therefore, it is of great significance for the supply and management of regional construction land and the sustainable development of the economy and the society to calculate the length of lag period and the size of total effect, and to explore its internal mechanism. Based on the statistical data of 13 major cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration from 1995 to 2017, this study put forward a lag variable model of the construction land growth to economic growth, and obtained the number of lag period, the effect of each period, and the total effect of each city in the region. This study also analyzed the reasons for the differences in time-effect combined with the level, functional orientation, and industrial composition of each city. The research found that: 1) There is a general lag effect of construction land growth on economic growth in the urban agglomeration, with a lag period of 0-4 years. 2) The growth of the urban agglomeration's construction land has a significant positive effect on economic growth, and the total effect is between 1.66 billion-49.5 billion yuan/km2. 3) The lag period and total effect of urban agglomeration construction land growth on economic growth show the spatial differentiation feature of core-periphery differences. 4) The lag period is mainly related to the level and function of the cities. The lag periods of high-level central city, medium level sub-central city, and low-level node city are 4 years, 2 years, and 0-2 years respectively. 5) The total effect is mainly related to the industrial composition. The corresponding effects of high-end, medium-end, and low-end industries are 30 billion-50 billion yuan/km2, 10 billion-20 billion yuan/km2, and 1 billion-10 billion yuan/km2, respectively.