实现国家自主贡献目标背景下我国碳交易机制研究?

以实现国家自主贡献目标为背景,运用电力行业细分的递推动态可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型,模拟我国统一碳市场下不同碳交易机制的实施效果及其经济影响。研究表明,全国统一碳市场有助于我国实现国家自主贡献目标,并且可以缓解碳减排对经济增长造成的负面影响;相比基于碳排放量免费分配初始碳配额的“祖父法则”,基于碳强度基准免费分配初始碳配额的“标杆法则”可以降低碳交易价格、增加碳配额交易量并扩大碳市场规模;采取拍卖方式有偿分配初始碳配额时碳市场中各行业面临更大的减排成本,但有利于增加政府收入;对碳市场未覆盖的行业和居民户征收碳税能有效控制其碳排放、增加政府财政收入、降低碳交易价格并促进我国国家自主贡献目标的实现;全国统一碳市场在抑制火电行业发展的同时将不同程度地促进清洁能源发电部门的发展。

Research on carbon trading mechanism of China at the background of achieving the NDC targets

Under the background of achieving China’s targets of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), a recursive dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with distinguished disaggregation in the electric power sector was developed to simulate the implementation effects and economic impacts of different designs of carbon trading mechanism for the national carbon market. Results show that national carbon market can help China to achieve the NDC targets and reduce the negative impacts of carbon emission reduction on GDP growth. Comparing with the rule of grandfathering allocation based on carbon emission, allocating initial carbon allowance freely under the rule of benchmarking allocation based on carbon-intensity can decrease carbon price, increase the volume of trading allowance and enlarge the scale of the carbon market. Allocating initial carbon allowance by auctioning will cause larger mitigation cost for the industries covered by the carbon market but can increase government revenue. Levying carbon tax on industries and households not covered by the carbon market can control their carbon emission effectively, increase government revenue, reduce the carbon trading price and promote the achievement of China’s NDC targets. The national carbon market will restrain thermal power industry whereas promote the development of clean energy power generation industries to different extent.