粤港澳大湾区人才集聚的演化格局及影响因素

知识经济时代人才是建设粤港澳大湾区世界级城市群的重要生产要素。本研究采用2005年、2010年和2015年广东省人口普查和1%抽样调查数据,以及香港和澳门对应口径的统计数据,以县市为基本单元,提出从受教育程度和职业技能两个口径测度人才集聚水平,系统解析粤港大湾区高学历与高技能人才集聚的演化格局及影响因素。结果表明：① 粤港澳大湾区作为中国经济高度发达地区,人才集聚优势高度集中在香港、澳门,内地珠三角城市群的人才集聚水平低于京津冀城市群和长三角城市群。② 2005—2015年,粤港澳大湾区高学历人才集聚持续均衡化,而高技能人才集聚优势仍然体现在香港、澳门,内地因为发展教育提升的高学历人力资本尚未完全有效转化为高技能人力资本。③ 香港人才集聚水平处于绝对领先,澳门、广州、珠海和深圳次之,而外围县市相对处于人才洼地,特别是制造业发达的佛山、东莞人才集聚水平相对偏低。④ 面板模型表明,服务业对高技能人才集聚的拉动效应强于高学历人才,而制造业的拉动作用并不突出。高等教育对高技能人才集聚的带动作用要弱于高学历人才。高薪资待遇有利于促进高学历人才集聚,但对高技能人才集聚的促进作用有限。新时期,亟需推动粤港澳三地管理制度衔接、产业转型升级和优质高等教育建设,推动粤港澳大湾区建设国际创新中心。

Talents concentration in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,China: Evolution pattern and driving factors

In the era of knowledge economy, talents concentration plays a key role in the development of a world-class urban agglomeration of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GHM). Based on the population census of Guangdong Province in 2010, the 1% population sampling survey in 2005 and 2015, and employment statistics in Hong Kong and Macao, this study measures the level of talents concentration from two perspectives of educational attainment and occupation on the county scale, and analyzes the evolution pattern and motivations of talents concentration in the GHM. The results show that: (1) GHM is one of the highly developed economic areas in China, and there is the absolute advantage of talents concentration in Hong Kong and Macao, while the level of talents concentration in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration is lower than that in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerations. (2) From 2005 to 2015, the spatial distribution of highly-educated talents in the GHM tends to be balanced, and there is also the advantage of the concentration of highly-skilled talents in Hong Kong and Macao. The increasing human capital defined by educational attainment in the mainland, which is caused by the expansion of college enrollment in China, has not been fully and effectively transformed into the advantage of human capital defined by occupation. (3) The level of talents concentration in Hong Kong plays an absolute leading role, followed by Macao, Guangzhou, Zhuhai and Shenzhen, while the counties and cities on the periphery of GHM have a low level of talents concentration. In particular, although Foshan and Dongguan have some developed manufacturing industries, their talents concentration level is relatively low. (4) The panel model shows that the service industry has a greater promoting impact on the concentration of highly-skilled workers than that of highly-educated labors, and manufacturing industry does not influence the talents concentration. Higher education plays a less important role in promoting the agglomeration of highly-skilled workers than that of highly-educated labors. High salary helps promote the concentration of highly-educated workers, while it does not boost the concentration of highly-skilled labors. In the new era, it is urgent to promote the cohesion of management systems in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, the industrial transformation and upgrading, and the establishment of high-quality higher education, ultimately, building GHM into an international innovation center.