生态省建设的碳减排效应研究

自1999年以来,中国开始生态省建设试点,探索加强生态环境整体性治理之路。生态省建设作为国家改善生态环境的重大举措,是否对二氧化碳排放产生影响是一个值得深入研究的问题。本文利用2000—2015年中国省级面板数据,采用准自然实验方法,构建双重差分模型,考察和评估了生态省建设的碳减排效应。研究发现：生态省建设不仅可以提高生态环境治理质量,而且具有显著且稳健的碳减排效应;生态省建设的碳减排作用主要是通过经济阻碍效应、生态保护效应及产业结构效应实现;生态省建设虽然对减少碳排放取得一定的成效,但依然存在区域建设不平衡,生态产业发展落后,生态创新、技术进步乏力等有待解决的问题。本文可为更好地推广生态省建设经验、提高生态省建设的碳减排效应提供科学依据。

Effect of "Ecological Province" construction oncarbon emission reduction in China

To explore the holistic governance of ecological environmental protection, China has started up a pilot project of "Ecological Province" construction since 1999. This is an important measure taken by the Chinese government to improve the ecological environment. Does this project affect carbon emissions? Answering this question can help us learn about the true effects of the "Ecological Province" construction project. Based on the provincial-level panel data from 2000 to 2015 in China, this paper focuses on exploring the effects using the methods of the quasi-natural experiment and counterfactual test. Moreover, this study tries to test the robustness of the effects using the methods of multi-stage DID model, propensity score matching-difference in difference model (PSM-DID model). The results show that: (1) "Ecological Province" construction project has a significant and robust effect on carbon emission reduction. (2) Its mechanism depends on several channels, including impeding the economic growth, protecting ecological environment and adjusting the industrial structure. (3) Nevertheless, there still exist some problems such as the regional disparity of implementing the project, the backward development of ecological industry and the lack of ecological innovation and technological progress. This study can provide a scientific basis for popularizing the experience of "Ecological Province" construction and promoting its effect on carbon emission reduction.