利用卫星云图资料制作热带气旋预报路径的一种算法

根据台风生成后在云场中移动的环境条件，引入一个环境作用于台风中心的热力梯度力方向，用该热力梯度力方向与当前台风的移动方向相结合，研究台风移动过程的变化规律，寻找一种简易可行的台风路径预报方法．经过多年实践，本文揭示出台风中心未来沿着当前移动方向与环境作用于台风中心的热力方向合成移动的基本规律：当前台风中心移向与前方晴空区中轴线相交时，台风沿着当前移向前进到与阻挡轴线相交点相距4个纬距的位置时便发生偏转，逐渐与阻挡轴线走向趋于一致；若当前台风中心距相交点的距离小于或等于4个纬距时，则从当前位置发生偏转．文中利用以上规律研制出台风移向变化方程和移动轨迹方程．

An algorithm using satellite image data for the forecasting of tropical cyclone path

According to the cloud environment where typhoon was moving, an environmental role of the thermal gradient force direction in the typhoon center is introduced. Projected by the directions of thermal gradient force with current typhoon movement, the changes of the typhoon move is studied to obtain a simple and feasible method for the forecasting of typhoon path. This article reveals a basic role for the future direction of typhoon center movement along directions of current typhoon with that of thermal from the environment. When the current movement of the typhoon center intersects the clear zone axis, the deflection occurs at the point 4 latitudes away from the intersection point before it moves along the block axis. When the distance of intersection point and the current typhoon center are less than or equal to 4 latitudes, the deflection occurrences from its current location. As results, the typhoon movement shifted and mobile trajectory equation is developed.