堆积层滑坡水动力位移耦合预测参数及其评价方法研究

在系统分析滑坡的物质组成和失稳动因的基础上，分析和研究了地下水在滑坡稳定性演化过程中的卸载与加载动力作用及其位移响应规律和特点。从非线性系统动力学角度，提出了运用地下水卸加载动力与位移响应耦合预测参数来评价边坡稳定性演化规律与失稳特征，即以地下水位变化量作为堆积层滑坡的卸加载动力参数，以相应的位移作为其卸加载响应参数，建立和确定了地下水卸加载动力与位移响应比预测参数与评价模型。同时，运用损伤力学基本原理，建立了其卸加载响应比与坡体损伤变量和稳定性系数的定量关系以及失稳判据。以三峡库区典型堆积层滑坡分析为例，运用地下水动力与位移耦合预测模型对其稳定性进行了分析与评价，发现地下水动力位移耦合预测参数变化与边坡稳定性实际动态演化规律基本吻合。研究成果表明，所确定的参数是水诱发型堆积层滑坡的一种有效位移动力评价参数，可运用该参数对该类滑坡的动态稳定性进行实时监测预警与评价。

Prediction parameter of water dynamics coupled with displacement and evaluation method of debris landslide

On the basis of systematic analysis of the material composition and destabilized mechanism of debris landslide induced by water，the dynamic action of unloading and loading and its response law of groundwater in the process of the dynamic stability evolution of the slope are systematically analyzed. The unloading-loading response ratio parameter to evaluate the laws of the dynamic stability of the landslide evolution and destabilized features are analyzed and put forward from the viewpoint of the nonlinear system dynamics. This paper firstly proposes that the monthly change of groundwater table can be taken as the unloading- loading parameter of debris landslide and its displacement velocity and acceleration rate can be taken as the response parameter to unloading-loading are proposed. Thus, the dynamic displacement parameters and dynamic prediction model of the unloading-loading response ratio of the groundwater table are determined. Meanwhile, the quantitative relationship between unloading-loading response ratio and damage variable & the stability coefficient and the criterion of displacement response ratio to unloading-loading are determined by using the theory of damage mechanics and the damage variable parameters of slope. Finally, taking the typical debris landslide of the Three Gorges Reservoir region—Xintan landslide for example, the calculation of unloading-loading response ratio of monitoring points of Xintan landslide is completed by using the dynamic displacement prediction models of the groundwater. The computed results show that the curves of unloading-loading response ratio of monitoring points basically agree with the dynamic evolution law of the slope stability. The results of the study show that the parameter proposed in this paper is a kind of effective dynamics appraisal parameter of displacement in the stability of landslides induced by water and it can be used to make real-time monitoring warning and evaluation on the dynamic stability of this kind of landslides.