基于统计方法的干旱区地下水最大可开采量的确定

为克服地下水可开采量确定过程中确定性模型的局限性、失真和参数确定困难等弊端,合理的确定地下水可开采量,基于研究区不同区域地下水水位与开采量监测资料,采用多元线性回归和非线性多元回归统计方法对不同情况下地下水最大开采量进行探讨。结果表明：1964—1990年期间百口泉水源地地下水开采量在持续增加,并以1976年前增加较明显,且地下水水位均表现为下降趋势;非线性多元回归分析法对降深与开采量拟合的结果和误差精度均优于多元线性回归分析法;基于拟合的非线性多元回归方程,可确定水源地正常运行条件下的开采量为1 391万m3、极限开采条件下的开采量1 856万m3、疏干开采条件下的开采量1 992万m3。

Determination of the Maximum Groundwater Exploitable Quantity Based on Statistical Methods in the Arid Areas

In order to overcome the negative sides on determination of the maximum groundwater exploitable quantity by deterministic models, such as limitations of the model, distortion and the difficulties on the determination of the parameters so on, and reasonably determine the amount of available groundwater, based on monitoring data of water level and exploitation, the maximum exploitation of groundwater in different scenarios is discussed by multiple linear regression and nonlinear regression statistical methods. It found that the groundwater extraction was increasing during 1964 - 1990 in Bakouquan water resource area, and before 1976 the increase was more pronounced, groundwater levels showed a downward trend. Nonlinear regression analysis method is superior to multiple linear regression analysis, fitting result is good on drawdown and groundwater exploitation, and error is smaller. The maximum exploitation of groundwater in different Scenarios is Calculated by the fitting multiple nonlinear regression equations, the exploitation is 1 391 × 10^4 m^3 under normal operating conditions on water resource area, under the extreme exploitation conditions is 1 856 × 10^4 m^3 , under dewatering mining is 1 992×10^4 m^3.