时间相依模型与泊松模型计算结果的对比分析——以道孚及炉霍潜源为例

本文分析了华北平原第四纪主要构造格局和强震活动特点,划分了主要强震构造带,并对其发震能力作了评价。认为坝县-束鹿-邯郸断裂带、唐山-河间-磁县断裂带和黄骅-德州-东明断裂带3条北东向右旋走滑断裂带为华北平原裂谷系从早第三纪伸展拉张作用进入晚第三纪-第四纪走滑剪切拉张作用的产物,这3条断裂带分别位于3个北东向坳陷带中部,并构成了第四纪沉降中心,与营口-潍坊断裂带一起构成华北平原内的主要强震构造。本文最后提出了华北平原区划分潜在震源区应注意的几点问题,进而针对第四代区划图中华北平原区潜在震源区划分综合方案提出了补充修改意见。

Comparison of Computational Results Derived from Time-Dependent and Possion Models Respectively

Based on the study of tectonic framework and seismicity in the north China plain, main seismotectonic belts are determined, and earthquake capacities of the belts are evaluated. It is believed that three northeast-striking dextral slip fault zones, i.e. the Baxian-Shulu-Handan fault zone, the Huanghua-Dezhou-Dongming fault zone, and the Linyi-Huanghekou fault zone, are the result of the tectonic transform of Paleogene extending to Neogene-Quaternary laterally slipping of north China plain rift systems, which extend along the central axis of rifts and accord with the Quaternary centers of subsidence as the main seismic structures within the rifts. Finally, this paper discusses some critical issues in potential seismic sources zonation of the north China plain.