Sensitivity Analysis of Multi-phase Seepage Parameters Affecting the Clayey Silt Hydrate Reservoir Productivity in the Shenhu Area, South China Sea

Natural gas hydrate (NGH) is an important future resource for the 21st century and a strategic resource with potential for commercial development in the third energy transition. It is of great significance to accurately predict the productivity of hydrate-bearing sediments (HBS). The multi-phase seepage parameters of HBS include permeability, porosity, which is closely related to permeability, and hydrate saturation, which has a direct impact on hydrate content. Existing research has shown that these multi-phase seepage parameters have a great impact on HBS productivity. Permeability directly affects the transmission of pressure-drop and discharge of methane gas, porosity and initial hydrate saturation affect the amount of hydrate decomposition and transmission process of pressure-drop, and also indirectly affect temperature variation of the reservoir. Considering the spatial heterogeneity of multi-phase seepage parameters, a depressurization production model with layered heterogeneity is established based on the clayey silt hydrate reservoir at W11 station in the Shenhu Sea area of the South China Sea. Tough + Hydrate software was used to calculate the production model; the process of gas production and seepage parameter evolution under different multi-phase seepage conditions were obtained. A sensitivity analysis of the parameters affecting the reservoir productivity was conducted so that: (a) a HBS model with layered heterogeneity can better describe the transmission process of pressure and thermal compensation mechanism of hydrate reservoir; (b) considering the multi-phase seepage parameter heterogeneity, the influence degrees of the parameters on HBS productivity were permeability, porosity and initial hydrate saturation, in order from large to small, and the influence of permeability was significantly greater than that of other parameters; (c) the production potential of the clayey silt reservoir should not only be determined by hydrate content or seepage capacity, but also by the comprehensive effect of the two; and (d) time scales need to be considered when studying the effects of changes in multi-phase seepage parameters on HBS productivity.