基于D-S证据理论的多水库联合调度方案评价

多水库防洪调度是一个典型的具有不确定性的多目标决策问题,在调度决策过程中,往往含有大量不确定性因素。提出了利用D-S证据推理方法,对多水库联合防洪调度方案进行评价。通过对不确定性评价信息进行融合,将问题转化为确定性决策问题。给出了证据合成的算法步骤,通过算例分析说明该方法的有效性和实用性。

Application of multi-reservoir flood control systems based on evidence theory

The multi-reservoir flood control is typical multi-object decision making problem with the uncertainty.There are many uncertain factors in the course of the flood control.D-S An evidential reasoning approach is proposed to evaluate the project of multi-reservoir flood control.By using this method to combine the uncertain evaluation information,the problem is converted into a certain decision making problem.The arithmetic step for evidence reasoning is presented.Finally,example shows that this method is efficient and practical.