旅游产业集聚与区域旅游经济增长的关系——基于2001—2017年中国省际面板数据

基于空间自相关分析法,综合考察2001—2017年中国30个省区（不含西藏自治区和港澳台地区）旅游经济增长的空间相关性特征,继而构建空间杜宾模型探讨区域旅游经济增长的影响因素,并着重解析旅游产业集聚对区域旅游经济增长的空间溢出效应。结果表明：中国旅游产业集聚整体呈波动上升态势,且区域间差距日渐缩小;中国旅游经济增长具有显著空间相关性,局域空间分布以“H-H”和“L-L”类型为主;区域经济发展水平、城镇化水平、产业结构和区域创新能力是推动本省区及邻近省区旅游经济增长的重要因素,旅游产业集聚显著促进本省区旅游经济增长,对邻近省区则是负向影响,而交通设施条件对本省区旅游经济增长具有负向抑制效应,对邻近省区影响不明显,地区开放程度对旅游经济增长的作用不显著。

Relationship between Tourism Industry Agglomeration and Regional Tourism Economic Growth: Based on China’s Provincial Panel Data during 2001-2017

Due to the comprehensive effect of a number of factors, the interaction mechanism between tourism industry agglomeration and regional tourism economic growth is becoming increasingly complex. It is thus crucial to explore the relationship between them from a spatial dimension so as to promote the coordinated development of the regional tourism economy. This study used composite location quotient to judge the level of regional tourism industry agglomeration to bring the variable of tourism industry agglomeration into the spatial lag term. Using the spatial autocorrelation analysis method, the spatial correlation characteristics regarding tourism economic growth of China’s 30 provinces from 2001 to 2017 was comprehensively researched. A spatial Durbin model was constructed to explore the influencing factors of regional tourism economic growth and categorically analyze the spatial spillover effect of tourism industry agglomeration on regional tourism economic growth. The results showed that: 1) The agglomeration of the tourism industry in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai,Hainan and Yunnan has always been at a high level, while the opposite applies to Qinghai, Jilin, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, which are essentially at a low level. The agglomeration of China’s overall tourism industry shows a fluctuating upward trend and the gap among provinces is gradually decreasing. 2) Tourism economic growth has a significant spatial correlation in China. Local spatial distribution is dominated by H-H and L-L types. The provinces of Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and Bohai-sea Rim basically belong to the"H-H" and "H-L" types, while the northwest and northeast provinces are mostly distributed in the "L-L" category.The central and southwest provinces are mainly distributed in the first and second quadrants. Some southwest provinces have transformed from "L-H" to "H-H," while the provinces of Anhui, Jiangxi and Hainan always fall into the "L-H" category. 3) The level of regional economic development, urbanization, industrial structure, and regional innovation capability in the province and its adjacent provinces are important factors to promote tourism economic growth. Although the agglomeration of tourism industry significantly promotes the growth of tourism economy in the province, it negatively affects the adjacent provinces. Transport facilities have a negative effect on tourism economic growth in the province but have no significant effect on adjacent provinces. The effect of regional openness on tourism economic growth is not significant. According to the research results, some targeted recommendations are proposed to promote the coordinated and symbiotic development of the regional tourism industry. This study avoids the limitations of traditional panel models in spatial analysis and strengthens the influencing of regional spatial correlation and spatial "spillover effect" on the research results. However, due to space constraints, only some factors that affect the economic growth of tourism are discussed and the paper fails to specifically consider the differences in tourism development among provinces. Due to the spatial heterogeneity of the tourism industry, it is recommended that the spatial spillover effect and the differences of influencing factors in different types of tourism economic growth regions are further explored in the future.