可持续发展视角下的南海岛礁评估分类

南海岛礁是南海海上合作和海洋治理的重要支点。南海岛礁的可持续发展是实现南海域内协同发展、合作治理的基石。为了多维度诊断南海岛礁可持续发展的现状，辅助岛礁科学规划，提升海洋治理能力，文章基于模糊层次分析法、熵权法与组合求权方法形成主-客观耦合求权的南海岛礁可持续发展评价方法，以永兴岛、赵述岛、南薰礁、美济礁、渚碧礁、永暑礁等南海岛礁为例，探究其可持续发展的潜力。结果表明，6个岛礁的可持续发展价值量排序为：永兴岛＞永暑礁＞美济礁＞渚碧礁＞赵述岛＞南薰礁。6个岛礁均具备可持续发展的潜力，但各个岛礁的发展状态差异很大，各维度的发展程度各不相同。综合评价结果和岛礁实地状况，分析南海岛礁发展的优势领域与薄弱环节，为南海岛礁规划了区域性中心、综合保障、特色产业、国防维权的发展方向。建议永兴岛和永暑礁发展为区域性现代化与智能化的绿色示范岛礁；美济礁发展海洋产业与后勤保障，完善海上交通设施建设，提供国际公共产品与服务；赵述岛与渚碧礁以渔业发展为中心，注重产业结构与布局规划，形成特色产业模式；南薰礁提升安全维护能力，完善岛礁建设，提升国防维权功能。

Classificatory Assessment of Islands and Reefs in the South China Sea from the Perspective of Sustainable Development

Islands and reefs in the South China Sea (SCSIRs) are important components of maritime cooperation and ocean governance in the South China Sea (SCS), providing land conditions for a variety of maritime cooperation. The sustainable development of SCSIRs is a cornerstone of coordinated development and cooperative governance in the SCS. As most SCSIRs are coral reefs with a fragile ecological environment and simplified development models, this study aims to quantitatively and multi-dimensionally explore the current status of their sustainable development to add scientific development planning and improve China's own ocean governance capabilities. The scientific assessment of island and reef development is the inevitable choice for sustainable development of SCSIRs. Based on the method of the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process, Entropy Weight Method, and combined weight, a subject-objective weight coupling evaluation method for the sustainable development of SCSIRs was developed that can reflect their development status relatively objectively and comprehensively. In addition, the Yongxing Dao (the Yongxing Island), the Zhaoshu Dao (the Zhaoshu Island), the Nanxun Jiao (the Gaven Reef), the Meiji Jiao (the Mischief Reef), the Zhubi Jiao (the Subi Reef), and the Yongshu Jiao (the Fiery Cross Reef) were used as case studies to explore the potential of sustainable development of SCSIRs. The results showed that all six SCSIRs had the potential for sustainable development, and the development focus of the SCSIRs was mainly on the three levels of society, resources, and strategy. The ranking of the sustainable development value of the six islands and reefs is Yongxing Dao > Yongshu Jiao > Meiji Jiao > Zhubi Jiao > Zhaoshu Dao > Nanxun Jiao, among which Yongxing Dao has the highest level of sustainable development (64.19) and a clear advantage in terms of social development and geographical location, while Nanxun Jiaohas the lowest level of sustainable development (38.84) due to harsh weather conditions and fragile ecological environment, leading to difficult circumstances when building and living on the reef. Based on the evaluation results and the actual situation, this study comprehensively analyzes the strengths and weaknesses in the development of SCSIRs and proposes the development of regional centers, comprehensive guarantees, characteristic industries, and national defense and rights safeguarding for the development of SCSIRs. Moreover, the study distinguishes the types of islands and reefs along four dimensions and provides social governance strategies and recommendations regarding resource utilization, infrastructure, and maritime cooperation. In these cases, this study can facilitate the formation of high-quality and high-efficiency application pilots for SCSIRs and promote their sustainable development. Thus, it furthers the construction of a modern system for the social governance of SCSIRs, advances the development of the blue economy in the SCS region, provides security for the construction of the Belt and Road Initiative and maritime cooperation, and makes China a strong promoter in the construction of a community of common destiny in the SCS.