大城市都市区制造业空间演变特征及其影响因素——以长沙市为例

以长沙都市区为例，基于1978—2020年制造业企业数据，运用标准差椭圆、核密度分析法和空间计量回归模型等方法，探讨长沙都市区制造业空间演变特征及其影响因素。结果表明：1978—2020年，长沙都市区制造业空间扩张规模较大，以“西北—东南”向扩张为主，由中心区扩张转变为郊区集聚重组。其中，劳动密集型制造业以接触性扩散和等级扩散为主，呈“中心集聚、分散布局”的空间特征，资本密集型制造业呈“大范围扩散、小范围集聚”的空间特征，技术密集型制造业受国家级开发区吸引较大，区位指向性强。在制造业空间演变过程中，社会经济、生产成本和政府行为等因素产生显著影响。3类制造业的关键影响因素有所不同：劳动密集型制造业主要受经济基础、生产成本和政府行为的影响；对于技术密集型制造业而言，社会经济、劳动力成本、交通可达性、工业园区数和创新能力作用突出；资本密集型制造业对人口数量、生产成本、交通可达性和工业园区数的依赖性强。所有制造业均明显受到对外开放水平的负向影响。

Spatial Evolution and Influencing Factors of the Manufacturing Industry on Metropolitan Areas: A Case Study of Changsha

Manufacturing is an important engine of China's economy, driving urban economic growth and spatial transformation. Therefore, the spatial evolution of manufacturing is a research hotspot for academics. This study takes the Changsha metropolitan area as an example, based on the micro-data on manufacturing enterprises from 1978 to 2020. Using the standard deviational ellipse, kernel density analysis method, and explored negative binomial regression model, the spatial evolution characteristics and influencing factors of the manufacturing industry in the Changsha metropolitan area from the point-and-surface perspective are explored. The main conclusions are as follows. From 1978 to 2020, the number of manufacturing enterprises in the Changsha metropolitan area show an overall increasing trend, with labor-intensive and capital-intensive manufacturing gradually upgrading to a technology-intensive form. In terms of spatial distribution, all manufacturing industries show an apparent movement of suburbanization in spatial distribution. Development zones are progressively becoming the primary spatial carrier for manufacturing reorganization and concentration. The manufacturing industry mainly expands along the "northwest-southeast" direction, showing a "point-axis" development pattern. In the process of spatial evolution, the Changsha manufacturing space has experienced a cyclical change from agglomeration to dispersion and then to accumulation. The evolution pattern has changed from mosaic filling to outward diffusion. Influenced by the characteristics of the industry, different types of manufacturing industries show apparent differences in spatial distribution. Labor-intensive enterprises are mostly micro-enterprises with flexible site layout, mainly contact diffusion and hierarchical diffusion, and the spatial characteristics of "central concentration and decentralized layout." The large-scale demand for land and employees in capital-intensive manufacturing industries-mainly large enterprises-restricts their concentration in urban centers. Meanwhile, preferential policies, such as "policy rent" in the development parks in peripheral suburbs, attract enterprises to move in, prompting capital-intensive manufacturing industries to show the spatial characteristics of "large-scale diffusion and small-scale concentration." Technology-intensive manufacturing industries are mostly small and medium-sized enterprises, which are attracted by national development zones and have strong vocational orientations. In the spatial evolution process of the manufacturing industry, factors such as socioeconomics, production cost, and governmental behavior have significant influence. Different factors play different roles in different industries. Labor-intensive enterprises are mainly affected by socioeconomics, production costs, and government behavior. Technology-intensive enterprises pay more attention to regional economic benefits, innovation environment, and policy support, while socio-economic factors, production cost, built-up environment, governmental actions, and innovation capacity all have important impacts on them. Capital-intensive enterprises are highlighted by the role of the population base, transportation accessibility, land cost, and industrial park policies. Capital-intensive enterprises are highly dependent on population, production cost, transportation accessibility, and the number of industrial zones. It can be found that the spatial evolution of all three types of manufacturing industries is significantly influenced by governmental actions; among which, the level of fixed asset investment and number of industrial parks reflect the planning guidance and policy orientation of Changsha's municipal government on manufacturing development. In addition, the degree of opening up to the outside world negatively affects the layout of all three types of manufacturing enterprises, indicating that the large influx of foreign capital tends to form industrial monopolies. This study provides a reference for optimizing the layout and high-quality development of urban manufacturing space.