华南滨海断裂带地震危险性的数学模拟

华南滨海断裂带是南海北部规模巨大的活动断裂，其地震危险性的确定将为地震几地震工程提供地质背景依据，应用二维有限元分析和正交设计法反演南海北部及其今近地区的构造应力场，探讨可能发震的危险地段。研究结果表明，滨海断裂带的某些地段，尤其是滨海断裂带被ＮＷ向断裂切割的部位有一定的地震危险性。南海北部地区最主要的地震威胁来自巴士系断裂带和珠江口盆地南缘的ＮＷＷ向断裂带，对华南滨海断理解带潜在的地震危险性不宜

MATHEMETIAL SIMULATION AFTER THE SEISMIC RISK ON THE COASTAL FAULT ZONE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

The Coastal Fault zone is a large active zone in the north part of the South China Sea. Studying the seismic risk in the fault zone will be of much benefit to the seismic prediction and engineering in the south China area. Adopting the method of two-dimension element analysis and the orthogonal experimental design, in the paper we simulate the tectonic stress field in the Coastal Fault zone and its vicinity area and discuss the place where an earthquake may occur.In the paper it is raised that the seismic risk exists in some sections in the Coastal Fault zone, espacially at the points where the Coastal Fault zone is intersected by the NW Striking faults. But the most dangerous place are in Bashi Fault system and the NWW Striking fault in the south margin of the Pearl River Mouth Basin. We should not give an exceeding estimation for the seismic risk in the Coastal Fault zone.