降雨与滑坡灾害相关性分析及预警预报阀值之探讨

详细研究了深圳市降雨与滑坡的历史资料，对区域性滑坡与降雨量进行偏相关分析，与降雨强度进行相关分析以及与降雨时间进行了系统地统计分析。研究结果表明，（1）滑坡的活动1～4日的降雨量及一次降雨过程的降雨量偏相关系数较大，表明一次性降雨量达到或超过某一数值时区域性滑坡就可以出现；（2）暴雨尤其是大暴雨及特大暴雨与滑坡的关系非常密切，相关系数达0.8以上，大暴雨或特大暴雨具有直接触发滑坡的作用；（3）滑坡活动时间与季节性降雨相对应，季节雨量越多，滑坡亦越多；另外滑坡活动时间与暴雨、大暴雨相吻合或略滞后，滞后时间一般不超过4 d，暴雨的当天及次日发生滑坡的可能性最大。在此基础上，探讨了区域性滑坡发生的临界降雨量和降雨强度阀值。最后将滑坡灾害的地质模型与降雨模型耦合建立了滑坡灾害的空间预警预报区划指标和等级系统，为区域滑坡灾害发生的时间与空间预报预警提供了科学依据。

Discuss on the correlations between landslides and rainfall and threshold for landslide early-warning and prediction

Historical data of rainfall and landslides in Shenzhen City are researched in detail.And the partial correlation between landslides and rainfall,the correlation between landslides and rainfall intensity,and the statistic relation between landslide and rainfall time are analyzed.The results show that: First,the partial correlation coefficient is better between landslide and the two-days rainfall,and the sum of rainfall.It is clear that the regional landslides will appear when the rainfall reaches some numerical values.Second,the relation is very strong between rainstorm and landslides;the correlation coefficient is beyond 0.8,especially the great rainstorm and the unusual rainstorm.They can trigger landslides.Third,the occurrence time of landslide is parallelism to the rainfall season,the more is rainfall,the more is landslide.In addition,the occurrence time of landslide accords with or lags behind that of rainfall and rainstorm;but the lagged time is less than four days,and the landslide probably arises in the same day and the second day when the rainstorm takes place.The threshold values of critical rainfall and critical rainfall intensity are discussed.At the last,the indexes and grades of spatial early-warning are taken by the coupling between the model of landslide hazards and rainfall so that it predicts the time and space that the landslides occur.