新疆阿克苏地区耕地变化分析及驱动因子研究

据新疆阿克苏地区各市、县的统计数据，分析了阿克苏地区50年代以来耕地面积的总体变化趋势、变化速度、区域差异和驱动因子。分析表明：阿克苏地区的耕地面积呈现波动增加的态势，但人均耕地面积经历了从增加到减少的变化过程；耕地空间变化区域差异较明显；影响阿克苏地区耕地变化的8个因子可归纳为经济发展因素、人类行为因素和城市化发展水平；通过模型计算，人类行为对耕地变化的影响尤其显著。研究结果和分析结论对于阿克苏地区农业可持续发展具有重要的意义。

Study on the Change of Cultivated Farmlands and its Driving Factors in Aksu Prefecture, Xinjiang

In this paper,the macro-trend,speed,regional difference and driving factors of the change of cultivated farmlands in Aksu Prefecture,Xinjiang,since the 1950s are analyzed based on the statistical data at prefecture and county levels. The results show that the area of the cultivated farmlands in Aksu Prefecture is enlarged in a fluctuation way,however,the per capita area was enlarged previously but is currently reduced;the regional difference of spatial change of cultivated farmlands is obvious;the 8 factors affecting the change of cultivated farmlands can be concluded as the economic development factors,artificial factors and urban development level;the calculation with models reveals that the artificial factors are the most significant to the change of cultivated farmlands. The study results and the analyzed conclusions are of significance for the sustainable development of agriculture in Aksu Prefecture. It is considered that a tremendous challenge of the cultivated farmlands will be brought about along with the local economic development and the acceleration of urbanization. In land use in the future,it is vital important to strengthen the scientific and technological factors,exploit the potentialities of the cultivated farmlands,increase the productive forces and the economic returns of the cultivated farmlands,raise the utilization efficiency of urban land consumption,and enhance the conception of saving lands. While developing the local economy,it is suggested to pay great attention to the protection of the ecological environment and make every effort to develop ecological agriculture in Aksu Prefecture.