杜家台分蓄洪区分洪运用频率分析

针对汉江洪水特点和汉江中下游防洪工程系统现状，建立了计算杜家台分蓄洪区分洪运用频率的二元概率模型。建模中将控制河段上游洪峰流量和下游河流汇合处最高水位作为相互独立随机变量，通过河段安全泄量与河流汇合处水位的关系。导出了分洪洪水洪峰流量的分布函数。经验证该模型的计算结果较为满意。

Analysis of the Flood Diversion Operation Frequency for the Dujiatai Flood Diversion and Storage Area

n this paper,based on the,flood characteristics and the current status of tile flood control worksin the middle and lower reaches of the Hahjiang River,a bivariate probability model is developed for calculatingthe flood diversion operation frequency of the Dujiatai Project.In this model,both of the upstream flood peakdischarge and the highest water level at the downstream confluence are considered as the independent random variables.By applying the relationship between the safe channel capacity and the confluence water level,then,thedistribution function of peak discharge of diversion flood is obtained.The calculated results with the model areclosely consistent with the observed data.