基于WW3模式的一次台风浪过程中掠海飞行器的击水概率分析

以CCMP风场驱动WW3海浪模式,对发生在2010年9月的台风“圆规”所致的台风浪进行数值模拟,并就台风浪对整个中国海击水概率的影响进行计算,为提高掠海飞行器的生存能力提供参考。结果表明:(1)以CCMP风场作为WW3模式的驱动场,可以较好地模拟台风影响下的海浪场,模拟的海浪数据接近海浪浮标观测数据。(2)击水概率场与海浪场的分布特征整体上保持了较好的一致性,高值区主要分布于传统的危险半圆。(3)当飞行器飞行高度为10 m时,大浪区的击水概率在20%以上,高值中心可达35%以上,台风尾迹处的击水概率为15%~20%,其余大部分海域为10%~15%;当飞行高度为15 m时,击水概率较飞行高度为10 m时明显降低,台风大浪区的击水概率为5%~15%,其余大部分海域在5%以内。

Analysis of ditching probability caused by typhoon wave using WAVEWATCH-III wave model

The ditching probability caused by typhoon wave was analyzed by using WAVEWATCH-III (WW3) wave model. Results show that: (1) The WW3 wave model can simulate the typhoon wave well with CCMP (Cross-Calibrated, Multi-Platform) wind data as driving field, and the simulation significant wave height (SWH) has high precision. (2) The ditching probability field has good agreement with the wave field, and the large areas mainly locate in the quadrants of 1st and 4th. (3) When the flying height is at 10 m, ditching probability in big wave area is above 20%, and it is even more than 35% in the large center, ditching probability is about 15%~20% in the wake of typhoon, and 10%~15% in other waters. When the flying height is at 15 m, ditching probability is greatly reduced and ditching probability in big wave area is 5%~15%, while it is below 5% in other waters.