威马逊台风对上海地区风暴增水的影响

本文首先介绍威马逊台风(0205号)的生成、发展和消亡过程以及该台风的特点,然后介绍了我中心发布上海市沿海风暴潮预报的有关情况,并对威马逊台风引发的特大增水成因作了分析。认为持续的东北大风和低压效应是台风增水的主要动力因素。这次台风过程末对上海市沿海造成超过警戒水位的原因是当台风位置处于有利于产生极大增水时,上海市沿海恰逢天文小潮汛(出现在低潮时)：而当天文高潮出现时,台风位置已稍偏北,不利于增水。最后作了两个推论,认为如果上海市再遇到类似的台风过程,而又恰逢天文大潮汛,或台风北上的路径再靠近大陆1个经距的话,上海市将出现超过600cm的特大潮位。

ANALYSIS OF THE STORM SURGE IN SHANGHAI AREA INDUCED BY RAMMASUN THYPOON(0205TY)

A brief description is made of the generation, development, and decay of theRammansun Typhoon (0205TY). The storm surge in the Shanghai area induced by the Typhoon was numerically predicted, with a good agreement between the forecasts and the observations. For all the strong Typhoon and storm surge, the actural water level in Shanghai area did not exceed the warning level because of astronomic low tide. Computation indicates that the Rammansun Typhoon might perhaps have produced extreme high water level of 600cm if for the astonomic high tide or the Typhoon position one degree longitude westward.