Method of expected earthquake losses estimation based on the frequency of seismic site intensity

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Method of expected earthquake losses estimation based on the frequency of seismic site intensity

During a given period,a site will suffer the attack from earthquake several times.But this effect is neglected in the currently used model of loss estimation from earthquake When calculating the occurrence rate of the affected intensity,the difference of the exceeding probability is used.Such treatment will underestimate the earthquake loss,especially when the exposure period is long.To overcome the shortcomings of the model currently used,a new frame of earthquake loss estimation is provided from the logic sense:during the given period,the expected earthquake loss responding to the specific affected intensity is equal to the expected number of the intensity multiplying the expected loss under the condition of such an affected intensity,and the total expected loss is equal to the effects of all the possible intensities.On the basis of the seismicity model used in compiling the "Chinese Seismic Intensity Zoning Map(1990) ",a new formula of expected loss evaluation and the variance of the evaluation are provided.It is inferred from the example and the comparison with the currently used method that the new method is applicable and necessary.These results will lay a scientific foundation for the estimation of earthquake loss,insurance and disaster prevention.