|
|||||
|
|
Nonlinearities, Feedbacks and Critical Thresholds within the Earth's Climate System |
|
| Authors: | José A Rial Roger A Pielke Sr Martin Beniston Martin Claussen Josep Canadell Peter Cox Hermann Held Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré Ronald Prinn James F Reynolds José D Salas |
| Institution: | 1. Wave Propagation Laboratory, Department of Geological Sciences CB#3315, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, 27599-3315, U.S.A. 2. Atmospheric Science Dept., Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 80523, U.S.A 3. Dept. of Geosciences, Geography, Univ. of Fribourg, Pérolles, Ch-1700, Fribourg, Switzerland 4. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg C4, 14473 Potsdam, P.O. Box 601203, Potsdam, Germany 5. GCP-IPO, Earth Observation Centre, CSIRO, GPO Box 3023, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia 6. Met Office Hadley Centre, London Road, Bracknell, Berkshire, RG12 2SY, U.K 7. DSM/LSCE, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Unité mixte de Recherche CEA-CNRS, Bat. 709 Orme des Merisiers, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France 8. Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA, 02139-4307, U.S.A 9. Department of Biology and Nicholas School of the Environmental and Earth Sciences, Phytotron Bldg., Science Dr., Duke University, Box 90340, Durham, NC, 27708, U.S.A 10. Dept. of Civil Engineering, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 80523, U.S.A |
| Abstract: | The Earth's climate system is highly nonlinear: inputs and outputs are not proportional, change is often episodic and abrupt, rather than slow and gradual, and multiple equilibria are the norm. While this is widely accepted, there is a relatively poor understanding of the different types of nonlinearities, how they manifest under various conditions, and whether they reflect a climate system driven by astronomical forcings, by internal feedbacks, or by a combination of both. In this paper, after a brief tutorial on the basics of climate nonlinearity, we provide a number of illustrative examples and highlight key mechanisms that give rise to nonlinear behavior, address scale and methodological issues, suggest a robust alternative to prediction that is based on using integrated assessments within the framework of vulnerability studies and, lastly, recommend a number of research priorities and the establishment of education programs in Earth Systems Science. It is imperative that the Earth's climate system research community embraces this nonlinear paradigm if we are to move forward in the assessment of the human influence on climate. |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录！ | |