| SARS疫情预测预报中的分段非线性回归方法 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 崔恒建,李仲来,杨华,李小文.SARS疫情预测预报中的分段非线性回归方法[J].遥感学报,2003,7(3):245-250. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 崔恒建 李仲来 杨华 李小文 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 北京师范大学 数学系，数据统计与数据分析，北京 100875;北京师范大学 数学系，数据统计与数据分析，北京 100875;北京师范大学 遥感与GIS研究中心，北京 100875;北京师范大学 遥感与GIS研究中心，北京 100875；中国科学院 遥感应用研究所，北京 100101 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金主任基金项目“SARS传播时空模型研究”(40341002 )，863计划课题“SARS流行病学资料的实时收集、分析和趋势预测”(2003AA208401)资助。 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 介绍了几种对累计SARS疫情预测预报中的非线性增长曲线模型，说明了Richards增长曲线在这次SARS疫情预测预报中合理性和可行性，由此建立了累计SARS疫情预测预报中的非线性回归点模型。并具体对北京SARS疫情进行了跟踪预测预报，包括整体和分时间段的预测预报，获得了北京SARS疫情随时间的预测预报结果，说明了北京4月底的一系列控制措施对北京SARS疫情所带来的影响，为进一步的后续研究打下了良好基础。
|
| 关 键 词： | SARS 疫情预测 预报 分段非线性回归方法 Richards增长曲线 非典型肺炎 非线性回归点模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 6/5/2003 12:00:00 AM |
| 修稿时间： | 6/7/2003 12:00:00 AM |
Nonlinear Regression in SARS Forecasting |
| |
| CHUI Heng-jian,LI Zhong-lai,YANG Hua and LI Xiao-wen.Nonlinear Regression in SARS Forecasting[J].Journal of Remote Sensing,2003,7(3):245-250. |
| |
| Authors: | CHUI Heng-jian LI Zhong-lai YANG Hua and LI Xiao-wen |
| |
| Institution: | Department of Mathematics,Statistical Data Analysis Center of Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Department of Mathematics,Statistical Data Analysis Center of Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Remote Sensing and GIS Research Center of Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Remote Sensing and GIS Research Center of Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Institute of Remote Sensing Applications,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China |
| |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces some kinds of nonlinear growth curve for forecasting cumulative SARS patients, it is shown that the Richards curve is reasonable and flexible in this SARS forecasting. The nonlinear growth curve regression model is established for forecasting cumulative SARS patients.Specifically,the SARS situation forecasting in Beijing is made well which includes forecasting based on comsecutive and piecewise time fitting. It means some control policies in Beijing at the end of this April play important role for anti-spread of SARS,and also provides a good basis for future works. |
| |
| Keywords: | SARS growth curve nonlinear regression model Richards growth curve piecewise time fitting |
|
| 点击此处可从《遥感学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《遥感学报》下载免费的PDF全文 |
