CCM3大气环流模式月-季尺度预报初步试验

以1991和1994年NCEP再分析格点资料作初始场, 用NCAR气候模式CCM3进行了48次月、季预报, 针对500 hPa高度和中国降水资料对其预测能力进行了检验.结果表明, CCM3对月尺度的高度场的预报有一定的能力.对中国160站的降水距平进行月尺度和季节预报, 其准确程度可以和目前经验预报的水平相当.比较使用实际海温和用外推法预测的海温两种下边界条件所作的预报结果发现, 两者的效果差异不大.

The Monthly- and Seasonal-scale Forecast Experiment Using NCAR CCM3 Climate Model

Using the NCAR CCM3 climate model, twenty-eight monthly and seasonal forecasts have been made for 1991 and 1994 with the NCEP reanalysis data as initial conditions. The prediction capacity of the model for the 500 hPa height and precipitation in China are examined. The result shows that the model has certain capability in predicting the height field in monthly scale. The ability of CCM3 in forecasting the monthly or seasonal rainfall in 160 stations of China is similar to the synoptic and experimental methods. Comparison of the forecasts from extrapolated and observed SSTA shows that there is no much difference.