雷电落点概率和强度预报方法初探

雷电灾害被联合国有关部门列为最严重的十种自然灾害之一，中国国家电工委员会称其为“电子时代的一大公害”。江西是雷电灾害较严重的省份，全省年平均雷暴日为82．9d，每年因雷电灾害造成的直接经济损失达5000～8000万元，伤亡近百人。为减轻雷电灾害损失，迫切需要对雷电落点和强度作出预报。为此，文中根据雷电闪击发生的天气、物理成因，结合国内外有关研究现状，综合应用闪电、雷达、卫星以及中尺度模式、对流参数等资料，采用多参数集成方式，研制分县雷电落点概率和强度预报方法。经试报和实报，雷电有无预报的Ts评分为0．61以上，雷电强度预报均通过了α=0．05的χ^2检验。

Preliminary Study on the Forecast Methods of Lightning Falling Area Probability and Its Intensity

Lightning disaster was listed in the ten of the most severe natural disasters by the U.N., and was named as ＂one of the public hazards in electronic age＂ by National Electrician Committee of China. As one of the provinces with severe lightning disaster, Jiangxi experiences thunderstorm about 82.9 days per year, which causes its direct economic loss of 50 to 80 million Yuan and about 100 casualties. To reduce the loss from lightning disaster, the forecast abilities for lightning intensity and falling area must be developed. Based on the meteorological and physical causes of lightning, and combined with both domestic and overseas researches, various data including that of lightning, radar, satellite, mesoscale model and convective parameters, etc. were integrated to develop the forecast methods of lightning falling area probability and its intensity. The results of test and live forecasts showed that Ts, grade for classification, was over 61% and the intensity forecast passed the test of χ^2 with α=0.05.